尊敬的用户您好，这是来自FT中文网的温馨提示：如您对更多FT中文网的内容感兴趣，请在苹果应用商店或谷歌应用市场搜索“FT中文网”，下载FT中文网的官方应用。
Investors and currency speculators have boosted bets on the pound as expectations grow that the Bank of England will be slower than other central banks to cut interest rates.
投资者和外汇投机者加大了对英镑的押注，因市场愈发预期英国央行(Bank of England)降息的速度将慢于其他央行。
As markets brace for central banks’ final rate decisions of the year this week, overseas investors have been scooping up sterling at the fastest clip since the summer while price pressures remain higher in the UK than elsewhere.
在市场为本周各国央行的年度最终利率决定做准备之际，海外投资者正以夏季以来最快的速度买入英镑，而英国的价格压力仍高于其他地区。
Data from Citigroup, which trades 130 currencies with a presence in more than 60 countries, showed that asset managers had ramped up sterling purchases since the start of November, a move that analysts said was partly a reflection of expectations that the BoE would be forced to keep interest rates high well into next year.
花旗集团(Citigroup)的数据显示，自11月初以来，资产管理公司增加了对英镑的购买。花旗集团从事130种货币的交易，业务遍布60多个国家。分析师表示，此举在一定程度上反映了市场预期，即英国央行将被迫在明年很长一段时间内维持高利率。
Markets are now pricing in three or four 0.25 percentage point rate cuts for the BoE next year, compared with four or five cuts for the Federal Reserve and five or six cuts for the European Central Bank over 2024.
市场目前预计，英国央行明年将降息3到4次，每次0.25个百分点，而美联储(Fed)在2024年将降息4到5次，欧洲央行(European Central Bank)将降息5到6次。
Purchases of sterling by fund managers, as a percentage of Citigroup’s daily activity in the pound, has risen from 22 per cent to nearly 50 per cent in the last six weeks.
过去6周，基金经理购买的英镑占花旗集团每日英镑交易的比例，已从22%升至近50%。
“After a period of neutral to slightly net negative flows our global real money clients have become net sterling buyers again,” said Sam Hewson, head of FX sales at Citigroup, adding that “sterling buying flows over the past month were [the] biggest since July 2023”.
花旗集团外汇销售主管萨姆•休森(Sam Hewson)表示：“在经历了一段中性至略微净负值的时期后，我们的全球实体货币客户已再次成为英镑净买家。”他补充称，“过去一个月的英镑买入流量是自2023年7月以来最大的”。
Other banks have seen a similar trend. John Velis, foreign exchange and macro strategist at BNY Mellon, which is custodian to $45tn of assets, said overseas holdings of sterling have returned to “close to normal” long-term averages having been “meaningfully underweight for most of the year until just a few weeks ago”.
其他银行也出现了类似的趋势。托管着45万亿美元资产的纽约梅隆银行(BNY Mellon)外汇和宏观策略师约翰•韦利斯(John Velis)表示，海外持有的英镑已恢复到“接近正常”的长期平均水平，“在今年大部分时间里，直到几周前，英镑的权重还一直明显低于正常水平”。
He said a reduction of hedging against sterling assets from overseas investors was in part because the UK will lag other countries in cutting rates. “This means that the cost of hedging sterling exposures based on forward rates will become more expensive,” he said.
他表示，海外投资者之所以减少对英镑资产的对冲，部分原因是英国在降息方面将滞后于其他国家。他表示：“这意味着，基于远期利率的英镑风险敞口对冲成本将变得更贵。”
Support for sterling comes as the pound has been the second best performing currency in the G10 this year. The UK avoided a widely predicted recession but ramped up interest rates to 5.25 per cent in an attempt to tame Britain’s outsize inflation problem.
英镑得到支撑之际，其已成为今年10国集团(G10)中表现第二好的货币。英国避免了人们普遍预测的经济衰退，但将利率上调至5.25%，试图遏制英国严重的通胀问题。
Analysts say the pound has been boosted by the BoE’s insistence its battle to fight inflation is not yet won, despite signs in the labour market on Tuesday that the impact of higher interest rates is starting to feed through.
分析师表示，尽管周二劳动力市场有迹象显示加息的影响正开始显现，但英国央行坚称其抗击通胀的战斗尚未取得胜利，这提振了英镑。
Andrew Bailey, BoE governor, warned markets in November that they were underestimating how persistent inflation would prove.
英国央行行长安德鲁•贝利(Andrew Bailey) 11月警告市场，市场低估了通胀的持续程度。
Michael Metcalfe, head of macro strategy at State Street, said sterling purchases were not only driven by expectations that the Fed would more aggressively cut its rates, weakening the attractiveness of the dollar.
道富银行(State Street)宏观策略主管迈克尔•梅特卡夫(Michael Metcalfe)表示，投资者购买英镑不仅仅是受美联储将更积极地降息、从而削弱美元吸引力的预期所驱动。
The bank had also seen notable purchases of sterling against the euro “which suggests this is a more broad based reassessment of the pound rather than being a product of changes in the US dollar and Fed views,” he said.
他表示，该银行还发现英镑兑欧元出现了明显买盘，“这表明，这是对英镑进行更广泛的重新评估，而不是美元和美联储观点变化的产物”。
State Street’s data showed that since November asset managers had been buying sterling at the fastest pace for seven months, but still remained “the biggest outright ‘underweight’ position asset managers hold across the 33-currenices we track”.
道富银行的数据显示，自11月以来，资产管理公司一直在以7个月来最快的速度买入英镑，但仍是“资产管理公司在我们追踪的33种货币中持有最大‘减持’头寸”。
Speculative investors, such as hedge funds, have also turned positive on sterling, according to the latest weekly data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the US derivatives regulator. So-called leveraged non-commercial funds held more than 11,600 net long positions for the week to 5 December, turning bullish for the first time since late September.
根据美国衍生品监管机构美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)的最新每周数据，对冲基金等投机投资者也开始看好英镑。在截至12月5日的当周，所谓的杠杆非商业基金持有逾1.16万个净多头头寸，自9月底以来首次转为看涨。
Economists polled by Bloomberg forecast that sterling will be $1.29 at the end of next year, an increase from its current level of $1.25.
接受彭博(Bloomberg)调查的经济学家预测，到明年年底，英镑兑美元汇率将从目前的1英镑兑1.25美元升至1.29美元。
On Friday, Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for sterling, predicting it will trade at $1.30 in six months time, up from a previous prediction of $1.20.
上周五，高盛(Goldman Sachs)上调了对英镑的预测，预计6个月后英镑兑美元汇率将升至1英镑兑1.30美元，高于此前预测的1.20美元。
“At least in theory, recent market developments should be very positive for sterling,” said Kamakshya Trivedi, head of global foreign exchange at Goldman Sachs.
高盛全球外汇主管卡马克什亚•特里维迪(Kamakshya Trivedi)表示：“至少在理论上，最近的市场发展应该对英镑非常有利。”
“The market has moved towards pricing a soft landing that also incorporates some rate relief, which should be good for cyclical and rates-sensitive currencies like sterling,” he said, adding that a quicker move to rate cuts elsewhere will make the BoE “less of a dovish outlier”.
他表示：“市场已经开始消化软着陆，软着陆还包括一些利率减免，这对英镑等周期性和利率敏感的货币应该是有利的。”他补充称，其他地方的更快降息将使英国央行“不那么像鸽派的异类”。
The central bank came under sharp criticism earlier this year for not acting strongly enough in response to price pressures, even after the UK’s headline inflation rate peaked at more than 11 per cent last year.
今年早些时候，英国央行因在应对价格压力方面行动不够有力而受到尖锐批评，即便是在去年英国总体通胀率达到逾11%的峰值之后。
Goldman predicts the euro will weaken to £0.82 in the next six months from a current level of £0.86.
高盛预计，欧元兑美元汇率将在未来6个月内从目前的1欧元兑0.86英镑跌至0.82英镑。
