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This week’s rally in global bond markets has shattered investors’ months-long assumption that interest rates in the US and elsewhere will remain higher for longer.
上周全球债券市场的反弹打破了投资者数月来的假设，即美国和其他地区的利率将在更长时间内保持在较高水平。
The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield, seen as a proxy for borrowing costs around the world, fell below 4 per cent for the first time since August. The policy-sensitive two-year yield, which closely tracks rate expectations, slipped to its lowest point since May.
被视为全球借贷成本风向标的基准10年期美国国债收益率自8月以来首次跌破4%。对政策敏感、且密切跟踪利率预期的两年期国债收益率跌至5月以来的最低点。
Other government bond markets have also undergone a dramatic about-turn in recent days, with Germany’s 10-year Bund yield sliding to its lowest level in nine months as its price shot higher.
其他政府债券市场最近几天也经历了剧烈转变，德国10年期国债收益率跌至9个月来的最低水平，而其价格飙升。
The sharp moves came after the Federal Reserve gave its clearest indication yet that it would not raise borrowing costs again, and signalled that it expected three quarter-point cuts in 2024. Fed chair Jay Powell noted that the benchmark rate was “likely at or near its peak for this tightening cycle”.
此前，美联储(Fed)发出了迄今最明确的信号，表示不会再次提高借贷成本，并暗示预计2024年将降息三次，每次25个基点。美联储主席杰伊•鲍威尔(Jay Powell)指出，基准利率“可能处于或接近本轮紧缩周期的峰值”。
“Higher for longer is dead,” said Kristina Hooper, chief global markets strategist at Invesco. “Powell wrote the epitaph [this week].”
景顺(Invesco)首席全球市场策略师克里斯蒂娜•胡珀(Kristina Hooper)表示：“较长时间保持在高位已死。鲍威尔（本周）为其写下了墓志铭。”
As recently as early November, markets had been bracing for an extended period of elevated borrowing costs as central banks continued their battle to tame inflation.
就在11月初，随着各国央行继续努力遏制通胀，市场还在为长期的借贷成本上升做准备。
In recent weeks, signs of a cooling economy and softer price growth data had helped to ease those concerns — lifting bond and stock markets. But the Fed’s closely watched “dot plot” projections on Wednesday were seen by many as the most official sign yet that “higher for longer” was over.
最近几周，经济降温和价格增长数据走软的迹象，帮助缓解了这些担忧，提振了债市和股市。但美联储上周三备受关注的“点状图”预测被许多人视为迄今最官方的信号，表明“较长时间保持在高位”已经结束。
By Friday, markets were reflecting investors’ expectations of six US interest rate cuts in 2024 — beginning as soon as March. Those predictions would take borrowing costs in the world’s biggest economy from a current range of 5.25 to 5.5 per cent down to roughly 3.9 per cent.
截至上周五，市场反映出投资者对美国将在2024年6次降息的预期——最早将于明年3月开始。这些预测将使全球最大经济体的借贷成本从目前5.25%至5.5%的区间降至约3.9%。
“A dovish pivot from the Fed is a full-speed ahead signal for the bond market,” said Bob Michele, chief investment officer and head of the global fixed income, currency and commodities group at JPMorgan Asset Management.
摩根大通资产管理公司(JPMorgan Asset Management)全球固定收益、外汇和大宗商品部门首席投资官兼主管鲍勃•米歇尔(Bob Michele)表示：“美联储的温和转向是债券市场全速前进的信号。”
While New York Fed president John Williams said on Friday that talk of rate cuts as soon as March was “premature”, his note of caution was not enough to halt the rally.
尽管纽约联邦储备银行(New York Fed)行长约翰•威廉姆斯(John Williams)上周五表示，有关最早于3月降息的言论“为时过早”，但他的警告不足以阻止股市上涨。
The upbeat narrative also persisted in Europe and the UK — where inflation has been far more stubborn than in the US — even as European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde and Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey pushed back against the prospect of imminent rate cuts.
尽管欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂娜•拉加德(Christine Lagarde)和英国央行(Bank of England)行长安德鲁•贝利(Andrew Bailey)对即将降息的前景进行了反驳，但欧洲和英国也依然保持着这种乐观论调。在欧洲和英国，通胀远比美国顽固得多。
Buoyant investor sentiment also lifted stock markets this week, with Wall Street’s S&P 500 closing out its seventh straight week of gains and edging closer to a fresh record high.
投资者情绪高涨也提振了上周的股市，华尔街标准普尔500指数(S&P 500)结束了连续第7周的上涨，逼近历史新高。
Some strategists noted that US inflation was still far from the Fed’s long-term target of 2 per cent — meaning that rates are unlikely to come down rapidly. The US headline consumer price index reading for November came in at 3.1 per cent — down from October’s figure of 3.2 per cent, and in line with consensus forecasts.
一些策略师指出，美国通胀率仍远低于美联储2%的长期目标，这意味着利率不太可能迅速下降。美国11月份总体消费者价格指数(CPI)为3.1%，低于10月份的3.2%，符合共识预测。
But for Michael Kushma, chief investment officer of broad markets fixed income at Morgan Stanley, “the Fed has switched its focus from inflation to growth”.
但在摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)广泛市场固定收益业务首席投资官迈克尔•库什马(Michael Kushma)看来，“美联储已将关注点从通胀转向增长”。
If the Fed is satisfied with waiting for price growth to return to 2 per cent, he added, “there’s no reason to have too weak an economy in 2024. The Fed has decided that inflation is behaving, so off to the races we go”.
他补充说，如果美联储对等待物价增长恢复到2%感到满意，“那么2024年的经济就没有理由过于疲软了。美联储已经认定，通胀情况在转好，所以我们要出发了”。
The sharp drop in government bond yields this week has also translated into much lower debt funding costs for corporate borrowers. The average bond yield for junk-rated US companies has fallen to less than 8 per cent, according to an Ice BofA index, around levels last seen in February — with Thursday marking its biggest daily drop in 13 months.
上周政府债券收益率的大幅下降也使企业借款人的债务融资成本大大降低。根据Ice BofA指数，美国垃圾级公司债券的平均收益率已降至不到8%，接近2月份的水平，上周四更是创下了13个月以来的最大单日跌幅。
The spread or premium paid by risky borrowers over the US government also narrowed by a sizeable 0.33 percentage points on Thursday to 3.47 percentage points.
上周四，高风险借款人与美国政府之间的息差或溢价也大幅收窄0.33个百分点，至3.47个百分点。
Concerns have intensified this year that some of the lowest-rated companies on both sides of the Atlantic will struggle to refinance their debt in an environment of much higher funding costs, potentially sparking an uptick in defaults. Junk-rated US companies alone are staring down a $1.87tn maturity wall over the next five years, according to Moody’s.
今年，人们愈发担心，在融资成本大幅上升的环境下，大西洋两岸一些评级最低的公司将难以为其债务进行再融资，这可能引发违约率上升。穆迪(Moody's)表示，未来5年，仅美国垃圾级企业就将面临1.87万亿美元的到期债务。
But “even though we haven’t seen one rate cut yet . . . There has been a significant easing in financial conditions that is giving companies breathing room,” said Invesco’s Hooper.
不过，景顺的胡珀表示：“尽管我们还没有看到一次降息……但金融环境已经明显缓解，这给了企业喘息的空间。”
The prospect of cuts has more pronounced implications for floating-rate loan issuers than for fixed-coupon bond issuers, said Andrzej Skiba, head of Bluebay US fixed income at RBC Gam.
RBC环球资产管理(RBC GAM)的Bluebay美国固定收益主管安德烈•斯基巴(Andrzej Skiba)表示，降息前景对浮动利率贷款发行商的影响比对固定息票债券发行商的影响更明显。
“Unlike in US high-yield bonds where it’s a marginal positive, in the leveraged loan space and private credit [space], it could make the difference between a company getting into trouble and not.”
他表示：“在美国高收益债券中，这只是一个微不足道的利好因素，而在杠杆贷款领域和私人信贷（领域），它可能决定一家公司是否会陷入困境。”
Still, he noted that a further slowing of the US economy could start to weigh on corporate profits.
不过，他指出，美国经济进一步放缓可能开始对企业利润构成压力。
