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Most Federal Reserve officials wanted to keep borrowing costs high “for some time”, according to minutes of their meeting in December, adding to doubts that the US central bank is poised to begin cutting interest rates as early as March.
美联储去年12月的会议纪要显示，多数美联储官员希望“在一段时间内”将借贷成本维持在高位，这加剧了人们对美联储最早将于3月开始降息的怀疑。
While officials expressed optimism that the Fed was quelling inflation, they were also careful not to commit to any immediate loosening of monetary policy, according to a record of the meeting published on Wednesday.
周三公布的会议记录显示，虽然官员们对美联储正在抑制通胀表示乐观，但他们也谨慎地避免承诺立即放松货币政策。
Rate-setters “reaffirmed that it would be appropriate for policy to remain at a restrictive stance for some time until inflation was clearly moving down sustainably toward the Committee’s objective”, the minutes showed.
会议记录显示，利率制定者们“重申，在通胀明显向委员会目标持续下降之前，政策在一段时间内保持限制性立场是合适的”。
Rate-setters surprised markets in December by indicating they expected the bank to make three quarter-point cuts over the course of 2024. While officials still viewed rates as “as likely at or near [their] peak”, they also saw “an unusually elevated degree of uncertainty” in this year’s economic outlook.
去年12月，利率制定者们出乎市场意料地表示，他们预计央行将在2024年三次降息25个基点。尽管官员们仍认为利率“很可能达到或接近峰值”，但他们也认为，今年经济前景的“不确定性程度异常上升”。
The account highlights the challenges facing the Fed as it tries to call time on a campaign of aggressive rate rises, without renouncing its commitment to keeping price pressures under control and risking damage to its inflation-fighting credentials.
该描述突显了美联储所面临的挑战，美联储试图在不放弃控制物价压力的承诺、不冒着损害其抗通胀信誉的风险的情况下，结束一场激进的加息运动，
“They’re not willing to say ‘we’ve won’,” said David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, referring to the Fed’s battle against inflation. The central bank’s officials appeared from the minutes to be a “rather gloomy, worried bunch”, he added.
摩根大通资产管理公司(JPMorgan Asset Management)首席全球策略师大卫•凯利(David Kelly)在谈到美联储与通胀的斗争时说：“他们不愿意说‘我们赢了’。”他补充说，从会议纪要来看，央行官员似乎是”相当阴郁、忧心忡忡的一群人"。
Despite their caution on rates, policymakers sounded more confident on inflation, saying the risks to hitting the Fed’s 2 per cent goal were “moving toward greater balance”. An earlier reference from previous minutes to inflation remaining “unacceptably high” was removed.
尽管政策制定者对利率持谨慎态度，但他们对通胀似乎更有信心。他们表示，达到美联储2%目标的风险“正朝着更加平衡的方向发展”。此前会议纪要中提到的通胀仍“高得令人无法接受”的说法被删除。
Investors appeared unsurprised by the account in the Federal Open Market Committee minutes. Yields on the US government’s benchmark 10-year bond were 0.04 percentage points lower at 3.91 per cent on Wednesday afternoon in New York, while the policy-sensitive two-year yield was flat at 4.32 per cent. Bond yields rise as their prices fall.
投资者似乎对联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议纪要中的描述并不感到意外。纽约市场周三下午，美国基准10年期国债收益率下跌0.04个百分点，至3.91%，而对政策敏感的两年期国债收益率持平，为4.32%。债券价格下跌，收益率就会上升。
In equity markets, the S&P 500 maintained an earlier decline to trade 0.6 per cent lower on the day. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite index was down 1 per cent.
在股市，标准普尔500指数(S&P 500)维持了早些时候的跌势，当日下跌0.6%。以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数下跌1%。
Futures markets continued to price in roughly six interest rate cuts for 2024 as a whole, despite the Fed’s official “dot plot” projections indicating just three cuts.
尽管美联储的官方“点阵图”预测显示只有三次降息，但期货市场继续预计2024年全年将降息约六次。
The publication of the minutes comes as Fed watchers continue to debate when the bank will begin lowering borrowing costs in 2024 and how deeply it will cut rates through the year.
会议纪要公布之际，美联储观察人士仍在争论美联储将于2024年何时开始降低借贷成本，以及全年降息幅度有多大。
“So long as the economy remains strong, or solid, they will, I think, remain on the sidelines,” said Kelly. “A first cut in June is my reading of their summary of economic projections.”
凯利说：“只要经济保持强劲或稳健，我认为他们就会保持观望。我对他们经济预测摘要的解读是，6月份将首次降息。”
The dovish tone of the December meeting and chair Jay Powell’s comments immediately after it led many investors to bet that cuts could start as soon as March.
去年12月会议的温和基调，以及会后美联储主席杰伊•鲍威尔(Jay Powell)的言论，让许多投资者押注美联储最早可能在3月开始降息。
FOMC officials have warned since the meeting that a move to slash rates was far from a done deal, however.
然而，公开市场委员会官员自会议以来一直警告称，降息远非板上钉钉的事。
On Wednesday, Richmond Fed president Thomas Barkin, a voting member of the FOMC this year, warned that the quest to beat back inflation was not complete, saying that some companies did not yet “want to back down from raising prices until their customers or competitors force their hands”.
周三，里士满联邦储备银行(Richmond Fed)行长托马斯•巴金(Thomas Barkin)警告称，遏制通胀的努力尚未完成，他表示，一些企业还没有“想要放弃提价，除非客户或竞争对手迫使它们这样做”。巴金今年是联邦公开市场委员会有投票权的成员。
“If that’s the case, I fear more will have to happen on the demand side, whether organically or through Fed action, to convince price-setters that the inflation era is over,” he said, adding that a soft landing was “increasingly conceivable” but “in no way inevitable”.
他表示：“如果是这样的话，我担心需求方面必须采取更多措施，无论是自发的还是通过美联储的行动，才能让价格制定者相信通胀时代已经结束。”他补充称，软着陆“越来越有可能”，但“绝非一定的”。
Barkin’s comments pushed yields on 10-year Treasuries above 4 per cent for the first time since the December meeting, although the move had largely reversed by midday in New York.
巴金的言论推动10年期美国国债收益率自去年12月会议以来首次突破4%，尽管截至纽约午盘，这一走势已基本逆转。
Bond prices have started 2024 on the back foot following a strong year-end rally that pushed the benchmark 10-year yield as low as 3.78 per cent last week, spurred by the Fed’s unexpectedly dovish tone at the meeting.
受美联储在会议上出人意料的鸽派基调刺激，债券价格在年末强劲反弹，上周将基准10年期国债收益率推低至3.78%，2024年伊始，债券价格开始回落。
On Wednesday, federal data showing that job openings in November fell to the lowest level in more than two years offered some evidence of cooling in the labour market, bolstering expectations of rate cuts.
周三公布的联邦数据显示，11月职位空缺降至两年多来最低水平，这在一定程度上证明了劳动力市场正在降温，增强了降息预期。
December’s decision from the central bank left the federal funds rate at 5.25 per cent to 5.5 per cent — a 22-year high.
去年12月，美联储决定将联邦基金利率维持在5.25%至5.5%的水平，为22年来的最高水平。
The return of double-digit inflation to the US for the first time in decades dented the Fed’s reputation, prompting policymakers to resort to a series of four successive 75 basis point rises in interest rates. In total, the Fed raised rates by 525 basis points over 2022 and 2023.
美国几十年来首次出现两位数的通胀，损害了美联储的声誉，促使政策制定者采取了连续4次加息75个基点的措施。美联储在2022年和2023年总共加息了525个基点。
However, price pressures declined sharply during the second half of last year and the Fed has not raised rates since July.
然而，价格压力在去年下半年大幅下降，美联储自去年7月以来没有加息。
The resilience of the US economy last year, as inflation fell despite strong growth and low unemployment, has raised hopes of a soft landing.
去年，尽管经济增长强劲、失业率较低，但通胀有所下降，美国经济表现出了韧性，这提高了人们对经济软着陆的希望。
The FOMC’s December projections showed most officials expected rates would end 2024 between 4.5 per cent and 4.75 per cent. Most officials expect rates to fall farther in 2025, ending the year between 3.5 per cent and 3.75 per cent.
公开市场委员会去年12月的预测显示，多数官员预计，2024年底利率将在4.5%至4.75%之间。多数官员预计，2025年利率将进一步下降，年底至3.5%至3.75%之间。
Those dot-plot projections are built on the core Personal Consumption Expenditures index falling to 2.4 per cent this year and 2.2 per cent in 2025, before hitting the central bank’s 2 per cent goal in 2026. Unemployment is expected to tick up only slightly, from 3.8 per cent now to 4.1 per cent.
这些点图预测是基于核心个人消费支出指数(CPI)今年降至2.4%，2025年降至2.2%，然后在2026年达到央行2%的目标。预计失业率只会小幅上升，从目前的3.8%升至4.1%。
Additional reporting by Jennifer Hughes in New York
詹妮弗•休斯(Jennifer Hughes)纽约补充报道
