尊敬的用户您好，这是来自FT中文网的温馨提示：如您对更多FT中文网的内容感兴趣，请在苹果应用商店或谷歌应用市场搜索“FT中文网”，下载FT中文网的官方应用。
According to the latest United Nations’ World Population Prospects and data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics, China recorded 9.54 million births in 2024, a sharp fall from the 17.86 million births recorded in 2016. Total fertility rate has also fallen to 1.01 in 2024, well below the replacement level of 2.1. Over the medium and long term, both the number of births and the fertility rate are expected to continue declining. The demographic dividend that once powered China’s economic rise has long faded, driving a deeper transformation across productivity, societal structures, and industries.
最新一版联合国《世界人口展望》（World Population Prospects）和中国国家统计局综合数据显示，中国新生人口数量已经从2016年的1786万骤降至2024年的954万，生育率跌至1.01，低于2.1的人口更替水平。与此同时，对于中长期的趋势判断，新生人口还将呈现下降趋势。生育率下降不仅意味着过去中国经济发展中人口红利的因素逐渐消失，更是社会生产力与生产关系、社会结构与服务体系深层次改革与重塑的过程。
Do opportunities lie amid these demographic headwinds, and how can limited public resources support a sharply rising demand for eldercare? In an interview with FTChinese.com, Stuart Gietel-Basten, Professor of Social Science and Public Policy at Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, emphasised that while governments must continue to provide core social protection, financial and insurance entities are also increasingly positioned to help supplement and build a comprehensive social security system.
如何在挑战中找到机遇？如何在有限的公共资源和日益增长的养老需求之间寻找平衡？香港科技大学社会科学与公共政策学者、老龄科学中心副主任贝斯图教授（Stuart Gietel-Basten）在接受采访时指出：政府需要继续承担基础兜底责任，而金融保险机构正在通过创新服务，成为居民的“长期伙伴”，推动全生命周期保障体系的形成。
Risks and opportunities of China’s demographic shift
一、 中国人口变化的“危”与“机”
China has one of the fastest growing ageing populations. In just 21 years, China went from being an “ageing society”, where 7% of the population is aged 65 and above, to an “aged society”, where that proportion doubles. In comparison, it took Japan about 24 years to make the transition. This demographic pressure places significant strain on public finances, the labour market, and the social security system.
中国老龄化的速度堪称全球最快之一。以65岁及以上人口占总人口比重为标准，日本用了约24年从“老龄化社会”（7%）走到“深度老龄化社会”（14%），与之相比，中国仅用了21年。这一结构性压力对公共财政、劳动力市场和社会保障体系构成重大挑战。贝斯图教授直言：“如果我们继续延续20世纪的经济模式——依赖低质量劳动力，不改革退休制度，不提升生产力和劳动参与率——那将是灾难性的。”传统上，65岁常被视为“老年”的分界线，但贝斯图教授认为，这一标准源自100多年前的欧洲养老金制度，已不符合当代现实。“今天的60岁，与1950年的60岁完全不同。我们应该用‘剩余预期寿命’来界定老龄，而不是死板的年龄门槛。”
“If China continues to rely on a 20th century economic model centred around low-quality labour, unreformed retirement systems, and limited productivity growth, it will be disastrous,” Prof. Gietel-Basten warned. The demographer also noted that the conventional threshold age of 65 as the start of “old age” stems from century-old European pension systems and no longer reflects contemporary realities. “Sixty today is completely different from sixty in 1950,” Prof. Gietel-Basten said, “Old age should be defined by remaining life expectancy, not arbitrary age cutoffs.”
在中国的特殊背景下，近年来各代人口接受教育程度显著提升。年轻一代相较于上代，在受教育年限、职业技能、数字化素养等方面有很大提升。教育投资、技能提升、科技进步使得每一个工作者的边际生产力上升。这意味着，即便劳动人口数量下降，整体经济产出也可能呈现出不降反升或不会同比下降的现象，因为新的时代，剩余劳动者的“生产力”更强。
He also highlighted that with the increase in literacy rates, younger cohorts in China have more years of schooling, stronger professional skills, and greater digital literacy than their parents. Investments in education, workforce upskilling, and technological innovation have significantly increased the marginal productivity of labour.
贝斯图教授在其研究中也多次强调这一视角的重要性：将劳动参与、教育水平对生产率的提升纳入衡量，使得对于人口老龄化带来的“负担”判断更为精细、也更具弹性。
This means that even if the workforce shrinks, total economic output may not decline proportionally, as workers are far more productive.
下面是这种思路的一个简化逻辑框架：
An approach to incorporate labour force participation, education-driven productivity, and health status into demographic assessments may provide a far more feasible and realistic understanding of the economic implications of ageing.
界定劳动参与群体与非劳动群体：应综合考虑除年龄（15-64岁）之外的实际就业/劳动参与率、退休年龄制度等因素。
在劳动参与者中引入“质量权重”：根据其教育水平、技能、健康状况、工作效率等，给予不同的生产力折算系数。
A simplified version of this framework includes:
在老年/非劳动群体中区分“纯负担”与“部分产能”：例如有些老年人仍有部分劳动能力或社会贡献。
Defining an effective labour force based on actual employment, labour participation rates, and retirement practices, instead of an age range of 15 to 64.
计算“加权抚养比”：即以加权后的“有效劳动总量”作为分母，以加权后的“需扶养老年数/消费负担”作为分子，得出一个“质量调整后的抚养比”指标。
Applying quality weights to workers based on education, skills, and health.
将其与传统抚养比并列分析：通过对比，判断人口老龄化在不同制度、不同技术、不同政策条件下的经济影响差异。
Distinguishing between elderly who are fully dependent and those who retain some labour capacity.
Calculating a weighted dependency ratio using the effective labour force and adjusted dependent population.
Comparing this weighted ratio with traditional measures to better understand how technology and institutions shape the economic impact of ageing.
在中国语境下，这样的方法不是空中楼阁。中国在过去几十年中在人力资本投入（尤其基础教育、高等教育扩招、职业教育改革）、科技进步、基础设施升级、医疗水平提升等方面积累了深厚基础。若合理引导和制度设计，将这些“质量提升”的红利转化为结构性缓冲，就能显著减轻老龄化带来的现实负荷。
This approach is not just theoretical. China has spent decades building strong foundations in education, healthcare, infrastructure, and technological capacity. With appropriate institutional design, these quality improvements can mitigate some of the pressures of aging.
贝斯图教授以及其他研究者由此得出一个相对乐观的判断：即使生育率下降、老龄化上升，中国在未来几十年仍有空间通过效率提升、制度调整与技术创新，维持经济与社会的可持续发展，这也为有前瞻性战略布局的专业人寿保险公司提供了时代发展的黄金机遇。
Thus, scholars like Gietel-Basten maintain a cautiously optimistic view: despite falling fertility and rapid aging, China still has room to sustain economic and social development through productivity gains, institutional reform, and technological innovation. These structural shifts also create substantial opportunities for forward-looking life insurance companies.
二、政府的责任：兜底与政策创新
The role of government
在贝斯图教授看来，政府始终是老龄社会的“最后防线”。这种定位不仅意味着财政上的兜底，更关乎社会公平和代际契约的延续。一个社会如果不能保证老年群体的基本生活不至于陷入贫困，就会削弱社会的凝聚力，增加代际矛盾，并最终动摇社会信任的根基。因此，如何设计合理的公共制度以确保老年人能够有尊严地生活，是中国在进入深度老龄化社会后必须面对的首要任务。
For Prof. Gietel-Basten, government remains the “last line of defence” in an ageing society—not just fiscally, but in safeguarding social equality and intergenerational trust. When a society becomes unable to prevent older adults from falling into poverty cycles, social cohesion erodes, intergenerational tensions deepen, and public confidence declines. Ensuring that older people can live with dignity is therefore essential.
在最低保障层面，中国城乡居民基本养老金制度已经覆盖超过10亿人，显示了制度的广覆盖与普惠性。然而，贝斯图教授也指出，这种普遍覆盖并不能掩盖人均水平偏低的问题。养老金待遇有限，很难满足老年群体日益多元化的需求。世界银行的研究同样提示，中国必须在现有制度之上，逐步建立多支柱的养老保险体系，通过职业年金、企业年金和个人养老金等多元渠道来增强制度韧性，以实现长期的可持续性与代际公平。
China’s basic pension system now covers more than a billion people, reflecting wide coverage and inclusiveness. Yet, Prof. Gietel-Basten notes that benefit levels remain low and cannot fully meet the increasingly diverse needs of older adults. The World Bank similarly argues that China must develop a robust multi-pillar pension system comprising of occupational pensions and individual retirement plans, to ensure long-term sustainability and intergenerational equity.
贝斯图教授认为，亚洲一些国家和地区在这方面提供了值得借鉴的经验。例如，新加坡建立了以中央公积金制度（CPF）为主、特定职业养老金和退休辅助计划（SRS）等个人养老金为辅的多支柱体系，通过强制性养老储蓄计划，解决房屋贷款、医疗保险、退休收入三大核心需求。同时，新加坡政府也通过免税和税收优惠政策，鼓励国人建立个人退休储蓄计划。
Examples from across Asia provide valuable insights. Singapore has built a comprehensive, mandatory-savings system centred on the Central Provident Fund (CPF), complemented by occupational schemes and the Supplementary Retirement Scheme (SRS). Contributions are allocated across accounts for housing and insurance, long-term investment, and healthcare, providing a diversified foundation for retirement security.
在公积金制度下，个人的年龄、收入和就业状态决定了缴费比例，资金划分为三个账户：用于养老、住房、保险的普通账户；用于退休相关金融产品投资的特别账户和用于医疗支出的保健储蓄账户。其中，普通账户和特别账户的储蓄在55岁后会转入退休账户，形成“退休储备金”，供退休人士每月领取养老金。
Hong Kong’s Mandatory Provident Fund and Malaysia’s Employees Provident Fund operate on similar principles, with joint employer–employee contributions and long-term capital accumulation.
这套以公积金为基础的养老保障系统，让新加坡连续17年蝉联亚洲最佳退休养老制度。“按照世界银行提出的多支柱养老框架来看，设立一种近乎强制性的私人或辅助养老金制度是不错的参考，因为在这种制度下，大家必须开始为养老存钱。”贝斯图教授说。
However, Gietel-Basten cautions that the key issue in pension design is balancing sustained contributions with stable long-term returns. Treating pension investment or elderly-care industries as short-term profit opportunities risks distortions and undermines long-term service quality. Industry leaders such as Taikang, with more than two decades of experience, demonstrate the importance of stability and long-horizon planning.
类似的养老制度还有香港的强积金制度（MPF）和马来西亚的雇员公积金制度（EPF），由雇主和雇员共同缴费，以长期资金积累方式，为员工退休后提供经济保障。
Government responsibility for older adults goes beyond cash benefits. Investments in healthcare, mobility, and community infrastructure shape seniors’ daily quality of life. “Ageing in Place”, supported by community-based care, smart-home technologies, and accessible transport, aligns with Chinese cultural preferences and reduces reliance on institutional care.
不过，贝斯图教授也强调，养老制度的设计和养老投资的关键在于持续投入与长期回报之间的平衡。他提出：无论是制度还是保险产品，都应该避免把养老投资、养老服务产业当成短期投资或短期收益的行为，避免从供需两侧产生对长期收益和更长阶段的养老服务的价值“错配”。从养老服务机构、保险机构“供给侧”看，应该优化费用结构、为客户制定长期稳健的养老金计划。泰康等业内领先企业，在经过二十余年长期实践积累起的产业经验和用户需求出发，在不断优化的产品和服务中找到适合不同群体的、分层次的养老保险产品。以泰康保险集团率先提出的“长期主义”养老投资理念和企业战略决策，也在随着中国老龄化社会的深层次结构变化、老年群体的支付能力和健康需求变化在持续做好“内功”的基础上，推出创新的养老服务生态，把更多的养老需求容纳到养老保险产品中，用结构化、抗风险的技术体系为政策外的养老金规划和长期老年照护提供更精细化的选择和保障。另一方面，从养老保障制度设计层面，个人养老金的制度应在“强制储蓄”与“灵活参与”之间找到平衡。
Education and human capital development are equally critical. Without a productive and employable younger generation, the pension system cannot remain sustainable. Reforms in exams, education systems, and vocational training therefore directly affect long-term demographic resilience.
与此同时，政府的责任不能仅仅停留在“发放现金”的层面，而应将养老问题纳入更广义的社会投资。医疗体系、交通设施和社区服务等公共领域的投入，都会直接影响老年人的生活质量。比如“居家养老（Aging in Place）”的理念，主张通过社区护理、智能家居和交通改善，让老人能够继续生活在熟悉的环境中。这种模式既符合中国社会对“在地养老”的文化偏好，也能在经济上降低集中照护的成本压力。
Finally, Gietel-Basten highlights China’s institutional advantage: policy piloting. China routinely tests pension finance models, long-term care schemes, and community-care innovations at the local level before scaling them up. This flexibility allows risk-controlled experimentation in managing population ageing.
社会投资的另一面是教育与人力资本的提升。贝斯图教授强调，如果年轻一代的就业能力和生产率不足，养老金制度就无法建立稳固的供给基础。因此，高考制度和职业教育的改革不仅仅是教育议题，更与养老制度的可持续性直接相关。通过改善教育公平与技能培训，提升年轻劳动力的参与度，中国才能在面对抚养比上升的同时，保持整体经济的韧性和创新力。
China’s response to the ageing population
最后，贝斯图教授特别指出，中国在养老制度创新上具备独特优势——“试点先行”。与一些国家强调自上而下的统一推进不同，中国可以在区域层面先行探索，在小范围内测试养老金融、社区服务、长期护理等多样化模式，再在全国范围推广。他总结道“与其追求一次性、全国统一的改革，不如通过地方试点逐步积累经验，在动态中寻求平衡。”这种制度弹性不仅能降低改革风险，也能为应对快速老龄化提供更灵活的工具箱。
The government alone cannot meet the enormous and growing demand for elderly care. By 2027, China’s elderly-care sector is projected to exceed 20 trillion yuan, with finance and insurance playing central roles. This underscores not only a vast market, but also that the solution to aging will hinge on institutional and financial innovation.
三、化解老龄化挑战的“中国方案”
Gietel-Basten notes a clear trend. “Insurance companies are no longer just selling products, but providing services across the entire life cycle,” he observes.
仅靠政府难以应对庞大的养老需求。根据多家研究机构的预测，到2027年，中国养老相关产业规模有望突破20万亿元，其中金融与保险将成为核心支撑力量。这不仅意味着一个庞大的市场，也意味着养老问题的解决路径将越来越依赖制度创新与金融创新的结合，像泰康等代表性的保险机构，正在通过创新模式展示出广阔的发展前景。
Companies such as Taikang are building long-term partnerships with clients by integrating savings, healthcare, elderly care, and risk protection across life stages—from youth wealth accumulation to midlife health management, to retirement income and long-term care. This “lifecycle services” model is becoming a strategic direction for China’s financial and insurance industries.
贝斯图教授在采访中指出了金融保险机构的新趋势：“保险公司不再只是销售产品，而是提供贯穿全生命周期的服务。”在他看来，以泰康保险集团为代表的保险机构，正在利用长期深耕养老市场的资源优势、技术优势，努力与用户群体建立“长期伙伴关系”。结合中国老龄化社会的现实发展需求，将养老金、长期健康投入、全生命周期的医养服务等理念，融入更广泛的目标人群中。从青年期的财富积累与风险管理，到中年期的教育、医疗、住房保障，再到老年期的养老金、健康保险、长期护理和社区养老服务，保险业都能发挥支撑作用。
这种“全生命周期服务”模式正在成为中国金融保险行业的战略方向。越来越多的企业已经开始尝试将养老金融与医疗健康、长期护理、资产管理结合起来，探索“保险+服务”的综合模式。
To earn public trust, companies must ensure transparent fees without hidden or complex charges, securely manage funds and long-term savings, and offer flexible, portable products that adapt to changing life circumstances. Taikang’s philosophy of “long-termism,” championed by founder，chairman and CEO Chen Dongsheng, reflects this broader shift from a product-centred model to a service-oriented, long-horizon approach to customer engagement.
不过，要想赢得公众的长期信任，金融保险行业仍需解决三大痛点：一是费用的透明化，避免复杂和高额的隐性收费；二是资金安全，确保居民的长期储蓄能够得到兑现；三是产品的灵活性和可移植性，能够随个人生活轨迹和需求的变化而调整。贝斯图教授强调，这些问题的解决，是保险公司从“卖产品”到“做服务”转型的关键。泰康保险集团创始人、董事长兼CEO陈东升先生提出的“长期主义企业理念”不谋而合，正是因为始终坚守长期主义的核心价值，泰康用30年的持续投入和专业服务，打造了中国特色的养老保险财富管理与医养服务全链条模式。
China’s financial market also offers distinctive advantages for innovation. As Prof. Gietel-Basten contends, “Even tiny premiums become enormous funds when two hundred million people participate. That is China’s unique potential.”
在贝斯图教授看来，中国的金融保险市场潜力巨大，而且格外适合场景创新。他举例说：“哪怕是很小的保费，如果有两亿人参与，这就是一笔巨大的资金。这正是中国的独特潜力。”通过数字化和人工智能技术，金融机构完全有可能开发出微型保险、低费用年金和可负担的健康险产品，让更多普通人获得基本保障，实现真正意义上的普惠金融。
Combined with advances in artificial intelligence and digital transformation, innovations such as micro-insurance, low-cost annuities, inclusive health insurance, and personalized pension planning are reshaping the financial architecture of elderly care.
人工智能、大数据和云平台的快速发展，也正在为养老金融注入新的活力。数字化理赔能够提升效率、降低成本；远程医疗帮助老年人更便捷地获得医疗资源；智能健康管理依托可穿戴设备与数据分析，让健康干预更加精准；而智能投顾和个性化产品则能根据寿命预期、健康状况和财富情况，为客户量身定制养老金与保险方案。这些创新不仅推动了行业的现代化，更在一定程度上重塑了养老服务的未来形态。
AI and digital technologies are driving improvements in:
claims processing and service efficiency
贝斯图教授也提出对技术热潮应保持审慎。他指出：“技术进步能够帮助金融机构实现成本下降和服务普及，但同时也要警惕新的不平等。如果只有会用智能手机的人才能享受服务，而把没有数字技能的人排除在外，那我们就是在解决一个问题的同时，制造另一个问题。”换言之，数字化的推进，必须伴随更强的社会包容性，确保每一位老年人都能从中受益。
telemedicine and remote health management
personalized health monitoring through wearable devices
养老问题的解决，绝非政府或市场任何一方能够独立承担。政府需要提供基本兜底保障，金融机构要提供多元化的长期服务，个人与家庭需要积极规划，而社区则要在支持和陪伴中发挥作用。正如贝斯图教授所总结的：“我们不能只依赖政府，也不能只依赖市场。个人、家庭、社区、企业与政府都应共同参与。”
automated pension planning powered by robo-advisors
因此，中国未来面临的不仅仅是“如何变老”的现实问题，更是“如何优雅而有尊严地变老”的深刻命题。通过制度创新、金融创新与社会创新的协同，中国完全有机会将老龄化的挑战，转化为推动社会进步与公共福祉的新动力。
Yet Prof. Gietel-Basten cautions about the risks of digital inequality: “If only smartphone users benefit while those without digital skills are left behind, we solve one problem but create another.” Digitalisation, he argues, must therefore be accompanied by broader accessibility.