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As the global economic landscape undergoes restructuring characterized by intensified geopolitical fragmentation and technological advancements, Mr. Claude Smadja, former CEO of the World Economic Forum, offers a clear and bold assessment: that the unipolar world order dominated by the United States is near its end. A multi-order world is emerging, with a new growth pattern developing amongst China and the rest of Asia.
在全球经济版图剧烈重塑的关键时期，达沃斯世界经济论坛前首席执行官克劳德·萨马加（Claude Smadja）提出深刻的洞见：我们正经历一个从“单极世界”向“双中心世界”加速转变的时代。以中国及其周边亚洲国家为核心的“新增长圈”正以惊人的速度崛起。
The shift is not just about reshaping economic dynamics, but a deeper reconfiguration of values, Smadja points out. It is transforming how societies assign value, redefining what it means to grow and prosper in an ageing world. When the problem of ageing intersects the tech revolution led by AI, traditional sectors like social security, healthcare, eldercare, and chronic disease management are faced with disruptive change.
这一变迁不仅关乎全球经济格局的重塑，更是一场深层的价值重构。萨马加先生敏锐地指出，经济增长模式的转型正在重新定义社会发展的优先级。在全球老龄化浪潮与AI技术革命交织的背景下，传统医疗保障体系、医养健康、慢病关照等行业都即将面临深刻的变革。
As the world’s second-most populous country, China’s ageing society faces fresh challenges in the new economic cycle. People are rethinking the meaning of “growth”: it is no longer defined by the rise in GDP, but how communities coexist, how individuals find security, and how civilization sustains itself.
作为全球老龄化议题的积极参与者，萨马加先生曾经受邀参与2022年在武汉举办的《世界大健康博览会》，时隔多年后，当我们有机会向萨马加先生介绍泰康保险集团创始人、董事长兼首席执行官陈东升先生的新著《战略决定一切》时，他对以泰康保险集团为代表的中国式养老模式创新、中国医养健康产业的发展表示出热忱的关注。作为世界上人口第二大国，在经济体量不断增长的同时，中国社会面临的老龄化社会问题在新的经济周期中，也会面临更多的挑战。人们开始重新思考“增长”的意义——增长不再只是GDP的攀升，而是关于社会如何共生、个体如何安身、文明如何延续。“新的全球秩序正在孕育新的生活秩序，”萨马加说：“在所有重塑未来经济的力量中，最被低估的是银发社会所带来的巨大潜能。”
“A new global order is giving rise to a new order of societal life,” Smadja remarked. “Among all the forces reshaping the future economy, the immense potential of the silver economy is most underestimated.”
在他看来，人口老龄化并非衰退的信号，而是国家走向成熟与自觉的象征。它既是挑战，也是契机——一次关于科技、健康、金融与伦理的系统性再设计。中国正站在这个拐点的前沿，拥有重新定义“发展质量”的独特机遇，以泰康保险集团为代表的中国企业正在依托本地市场差异化竞争的实践经验积累，叠加技术赋能的创新优势，为全球医养健康和养老服务的市场化路径提出新的方法论。
The ageing population is not a sign of decline, but a symbol of maturity, according to Smadja. China stands at the forefront of this systematic turning point, with unique opportunities to redefine the meaning of quality growth.
“旧秩序已死”：欧洲的失速与亚洲的崛起
An active participant in ageing-related initiatives, such as the 2022 Global Health Expo in Wuhan, Smadja is interested in the evolution of China’s healthcare and eldercare industry as described in the book Strategy Determines Everything written by Chen Dongsheng，founder, chairman and CEO of Taikang Insurance Group. Companies such as Taikang Insurance Group are heralding change by balancing local differentiation and technological innovation to provide new market-oriented eldercare service models.
萨马加开门见山地表示：“旧的国际秩序已经死了。”世界正在分化为两个主要经济中心：一个围绕美国，另一个围绕中国及亚洲。前者正在失去自我更新的能力，而后者正以惊人的速度重塑经济、科技与文化格局。
“The Old Order Is Dead”
“欧洲已经成为美国的数字与文化殖民地。”萨马加毫不留情地批评欧洲在安全、能源和科技领域的依赖：“在人工智能和数字革命的时代，欧洲几乎没有存在感。”他认为，欧洲的老龄化、高债务与低增长使其逐步丧失创新力，“成为一个维持舒适、却难以再创造未来的大陆”。
“The old international order is dead.” Smadja describes a world dividing into two major economic centres: one Atlantic-centred, the other rooted in Asia. And while the United States struggles to defend its longstanding position, Europe, he argues, has begun to lose its relevance. “Europe has become a digital and cultural colony of the United States.” Smadja criticizes Europe’s dependence in security, energy, and technology, “Europe is practically absent in the realm of AI and the digital revolution.” A shrinking workforce, rising debt, and risk-averse politics have left the continent “comfortable, but no longer creative”.
相比之下，亚洲的活力正全面释放。亚洲正在形成一个以中国为核心的“经济繁荣圈”——技术、基础设施、通信、金融体系的融合正在加速。“这不仅是中国的延伸，更是‘亚洲世纪’的真实开端。”
In contrast, Asia’s vitality is fully unleashed. Infrastructure, finance, communications, and technology systems are converging in China’s new economic pathway. “This is not just an extension of China’s economy—it is the true beginning of the Asian Century.” Smadja comments.
在萨马加看来，美国的保护主义政策反而成为了全球多极化的催化剂。“特朗普是中国崛起的最佳助推器，” 萨马加说，“他的‘去全球化’迫使世界开始寻找Plan B，促使印度签署更多自贸协定，东盟深化与中国的合作。”他总结道：“美国无法阻止世界从单极霸权走向多中心共存。地缘政治的中心，正在从大西洋转向太平洋。”
Smadja believes American protectionism has ironically sped up this shift towards multipolarity, forcing the world to diversify and strengthening China–ASEAN economic convergence. “The geopolitical centre of gravity is moving from the Atlantic to the Pacific.”
中国的下一程：从“基建出口”到“科技消费”
China’s next phase: From infrastructural exports to tech-driven consumption
在克劳德·萨马加看来，中国正处于结构性转型的关口。过去四十年，中国以基础设施投资和出口扩张为双引擎，创造了人类经济史上前所未有的增长奇迹，完成了从工业化到城市化的跨越。但任何奇迹都不会永远持续，如今这两个传统动力正逐渐逼近极限。要支撑未来十年的跃迁，中国必须找到新的增长源泉——从“量的扩张”转向“质的跃升”。
China, he argues, is at a structural turning point. Over the past 40 years, infrastructure investment and export expansion fuelled an unprecedented economic miracle. But these growth engines are reaching their limits. To sustain momentum in the next decade, China must transition from expansion to upgrading.
这场转型的关键在于科技自主化与内需驱动的双轮并进。中国正在推进科技自主化，这并非封闭保守，而是为在全球竞争中保持关键领域独立性的理性选择。科技自主不仅是国家安全的底线，更是创新社会的根基。与此同时，中国经济的真正活力依然来自民间。民营企业的灵活性与创造力，使它们成为科技成果落地和产业升级的关键力量。无论是互联网经济的崛起，还是新能源产业的扩张，背后都凝聚着一代企业家的探索精神和创新胆识。
Future growth will depend on two factors, technological autonomy and domestic demand. Technological autonomy does not translate to isolationist policies, but a move to secure resilience in key industries.
与供给侧的技术革命相呼应，中国的需求结构也在发生深刻变化。社会从解决“有没有”的阶段，进入追求“好不好”的阶段，消费正在从“拥有型”转向“体验型”与“关怀型”。人们更关注生活品质、身体健康和情感温度，经济增长的重心因此从物质积累转向生活价值。
Simultaneously, consumer demand is evolving from “Do we have it?” to “Is it good?” Consumption is moving from material accumulation to human-centred values like experience and care. Meanwhile, China’s economic vitality continues to come from the private sector. Its agility and innovation drive industrial upgrading and tech breakthroughs, evident in the internet boom and the surge in renewables.
驱动这一转变的重要力量，是不断扩大的银发群体。他们拥有积蓄、健康意识和品质消费的意愿，渴望在晚年依然活得精彩、有尊严、有选择。由此，一条围绕“长寿社会”的产业链正逐步成形，从医疗健康、养老服务到金融保险、文化休闲与智能科技，都在被重新定义。随着老龄群体的消费与创新潜力被释放，银发经济从边缘领域走向核心，成为推动中国经济结构升级与社会创新的重要引擎。
A key driver of this shift is the ever-growing elder population—wealthy, health-conscious, and eager to pursue dignity and choice in later life. Thus, an emerging longevity-centred industry chain finds itself at the centre of economic transformation.
银发社会：从挑战到增长极
The silver-haired society: From challenge to opportunity
在克劳德·萨马加看来，中国的老龄化并非危机，而是迈向成熟经济体的必由之路。
“Ageing does not destroy growth potential, but rather reshapes it,” Smadja says. Healthcare, long-term care, leisure travel, smart living, and lifelong learning are forming new pillars of the Chinese economy. As a result, there has been a surge in retirement communities, insurance and wealth protection, smart-assisted living technology and other products and services catered to elderly needs. Smadja calls this “a structural shift from production-driven to lifestyle-driven development”.
“老龄化社会孕育的是新的消费逻辑与产业结构。”他说。医疗、健康管理、长期护理、养老服务、休闲旅游、智能居住与教育培训，正在汇聚成中国经济的新支柱群。这是从“生产导向”走向“生活导向”的结构性跃迁，是一场关于幸福感与经济增长方式的深刻革命。
Japan and Nordic countries demonstrated that longevity economies can inspire groundbreaking innovation. Japan turned longevity challenges into world-leading robotics and healthcare industries; Nordic nations transformed longevity into social capital through strong public systems. “China’s advantage,” he argues, “lies in its comprehensive industrial system, technological momentum, scale of market, and younger regional environment.”
回望日本和欧洲的经验，萨马加指出，老龄化从未真正摧毁增长潜能。相反，它重塑了增长模式。日本通过科技创新与社会制度改革，让老龄社会催生出世界领先的护理机器人、健康产业与社区经济；北欧国家则凭借高质量的社会保障和教育体系，将“长寿”转化为社会资本。“中国的优势在于拥有更完整的产业体系、更强的科技动能、更大规模的市场，以及更年轻的邻域环境。”他认为，中国既是老龄化的实验场，也是长寿经济的领跑者。
Today, China has seen the emergence of pioneering enterprises like Taikang Insurance Group. In a differentiated competitive market, the company’s founders have managed to integrate healthcare, retirement life, insurance, and wealth management into “full life-cycle solutions” where ageing is treated as a new horizon of possibility rather than a social cost.
如今，中国已经出现一批具有引领意义的探索者，泰康保险集团正是这其中的一个典型样本。企业创建者的决策能力直接有效地转化为竞争能力，在差异化的竞争市场中，他们正尝试将医疗、养老、保险与财富管理整合成“生命全周期服务体系”，以健康社区、智慧医疗与金融创新为载体，让“长寿”不再是成本，而成为新的机会。
Smadja calls this the “Chinese path to the silver economy”, a new model that combines growth with societal sustainability, ensuring that development is both intelligent and humane.
萨马加称，这是“银发经济”的中国路径：一种将增长与社会可持续性结合、让发展兼具温度与智慧的新模式。
“Technology is rewriting the narrative of ageing,” Smadja asserts. This is not only an economic transformation but also a renewal of social psychology—from fear of decline to embracing longevity, from passive care to active living.
科技的赋能，使老龄社会拥有了前所未有的可能。AI与机器人可以弥补劳动力的缺口，数字化让医疗与服务更高效，智能家居与远程健康管理让老年生活更加自主、有尊严。
“Yes, China’s population is ageing, but the whole of Asia is still growing,” Smadja says. China’s strength lies not in avoiding demographic realities, but in transforming them into new drivers of innovation and demand.
“技术正在重塑我们对老去的想象。”萨马加指出，这不仅是一场经济转型，更是一场社会心理的更新——从“避谈衰老”到“拥抱长寿”，从“照料成本”到“生活价值”。
Samdja concludes, "The silver society is not the end of civilization, but a new prelude. It allows us to rediscover that the meaning of time is not in calculating years, but in extending the possibilities of life." Against the backdrop of global order restructuring, China is in a unique position to lead the world towards a new paradigm, where prosperity and dignity are aligned, where longevity becomes a form of productivity.
“是的，中国的人口在老去，但整个亚洲仍在生长。”萨马加说。中国的优势不在回避老龄化，而在主动把它转化为创新与消费的新动力。它不仅能为自身经济注入持续增长的内核，也可能为全球提供一种新的发展范式——让老龄社会成为活力社会，让长寿成为一种生产力。
这正是未来中国的独特哲学：在全球秩序重组的背景下，以人的价值与社会温度重新定义增长。萨马加最后总结道：“银发社会不是文明的终章，而是新的序曲。它让我们重新发现，时间的意义不是计算岁月，而是延展生命的可能。”