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In 2024, Apple will release its first new hardware product in close to a decade. If demand for the bulky Vision Pro virtual reality headsets is high, the company will be one step closer to proving that its future does not rest on iPhone sales.
2024年，苹果(Apple)将发布近十年来的第一款新硬件产品。如果对大块头Vision Pro虚拟现实头盔的需求很高，苹果公司将离证明其未来不依赖iPhone的销售又近了一步。
Add a billion paying subscribers and a vast cash pile and its position as the most valuable stock makes sense. In the past five years it has surpassed $1tn, $2tn and $3tn market cap milestones. But its path to becoming the world’s first $4tn company will be steeper.
再加上10亿付费用户和庞大的现金储备，该公司成为最有价值股票也就在情理之中了。在过去5年里，它的市值先后突破了1万亿美元、2万亿美元和3万亿美元的里程碑。但要成为全球首家市值4万亿美元的公司，其道路将更加陡峭。
On the plus side, Apple’s net income margin has remained high thanks to growth in services such as streaming and payments. However, revenue is forecast to drop 3 per cent in fiscal 2023 year as global demand for new smartphones slows. VR headsets are not expected to make up for this decline.
从好的方面看，得益于流媒体和支付等服务的增长，苹果的净收入利润率一直保持在高位。不过，由于全球对新智能手机的需求放缓，预计该公司2023财年的营收将下降3%。而虚拟现实头显不太可能弥补这一下降。
There is also a noticeable gap between Apple’s market cap growth and its profit expansion. Apple became a $1tn company in the summer of 2018. Since then its market value has almost tripled. Over the same period, annual net income has grown by 63 per cent.
苹果的市值增长和利润扩张之间也存在明显的差距。苹果在2018年夏天成为一家市值1万亿美元的公司。从那时起，它的市值几乎增长了两倍。同期，其年度净利润增长了63%。
The distance between the two does not bode well for the market cap growth spurt necessary for the company to reach $4tn. The stock trades at 27 times forward earnings, according to S&P Capital. At this multiple, next year the stock would trade at about $3tn.
对于该公司达到4万亿美元市值所需的市值井喷式增长来说，两者之间的差距不是好兆头。标普资本(S&P Capital)的数据显示，该股的预期市盈率为27倍。按照这一市盈率计算，该股明年的市值将达到3万亿美元左右。
Apple can help matters by using its $166bn cash pile to buy back more shares. Having bought a fifth of its own shares since 2018, Apple stays popular with investors. But high interest rates could damp demand for its shares.
苹果公司可以利用其1660亿美元的现金储备回购更多股票，从而帮助解决问题。自2018年以来，苹果已经回购了五分之一的自家股票，因此一直受到投资者的青睐。但高利率可能会抑制对其股票的需求。
Problems in China may also eclipse any financial engineering. As its third-largest market by sales, clearly Chinese consumers value the Apple brand. But some government agencies have banned the use of its devices. Should a wider crackdown follow, that will give domestic rivals a leg-up. The sales hit would not only put a $4tn valuation out of reach, it could also knock Apple off its top rank in the US stock market.
中国的问题也可能使任何金融工程黯然失色。作为苹果销售额第三大的市场，中国消费者显然很看重苹果品牌。但一些政府机构已经禁止使用该公司的设备。如果更大范围的打击随之而来，这将给国内的竞争对手提供帮助。销售受到打击不仅会使4万亿美元的估值遥不可及，还可能把苹果从美国股市的头把交椅上拉下来。
Listen to Lex deputy editor Elaine Moore talk to creators, companies and critics about the next era of social media in the FT’s new Tech Tonic podcast series.
