Predictions: Apple’s $4tn target will remain out of reach

{"text":[[{"start":12.89,"text":"In 2024, Apple will release its first new hardware product in close to a decade. "},{"start":18.319000000000003,"text":"If demand for the bulky Vision Pro virtual reality headsets is high, the company will be one step closer to proving that its future does not rest on iPhone sales. "}],[{"start":28.04,"text":"Add a billion paying subscribers and a vast cash pile and its position as the most valuable stock makes sense. "},{"start":33.969,"text":"In the past five years it has surpassed $1tn, $2tn and $3tn market cap milestones. "},{"start":40.748999999999995,"text":"But its path to becoming the world’s first $4tn company will be steeper. "}],[{"start":45.599999999999994,"text":"On the plus side, Apple’s net income margin has remained high thanks to growth in services such as streaming and payments. "},{"start":52.166999999999994,"text":"However, revenue is forecast to drop 3 per cent in fiscal 2023 year as global demand for new smartphones slows. "},{"start":59.108999999999995,"text":"VR headsets are not expected to make up for this decline. "}],[{"start":63.50999999999999,"text":"There is also a noticeable gap between Apple’s market cap growth and its profit expansion. "},{"start":68.48899999999999,"text":"Apple became a $1tn company in the summer of 2018. "},{"start":72.50699999999999,"text":"Since then its market value has almost tripled. "},{"start":75.18699999999998,"text":"Over the same period, annual net income has grown by 63 per cent. "}],[{"start":80.46,"text":"The distance between the two does not bode well for the market cap growth spurt necessary for the company to reach $4tn. "},{"start":87.40199999999999,"text":"The stock trades at 27 times forward earnings, according to S&P Capital. "},{"start":92.30699999999999,"text":"At this multiple, next year the stock would trade at about $3tn. "}],[{"start":97.00999999999999,"text":"Apple can help matters by using its $166bn cash pile to buy back more shares. "},{"start":103.077,"text":"Having bought a fifth of its own shares since 2018, Apple stays popular with investors. "},{"start":108.332,"text":"But high interest rates could damp demand for its shares. "}],[{"start":112.32999999999998,"text":"Problems in China may also eclipse any financial engineering. "},{"start":116.09699999999998,"text":"As its third-largest market by sales, clearly Chinese consumers value the Apple brand. "},{"start":121.32699999999998,"text":"But some government agencies have banned the use of its devices. "},{"start":124.70699999999998,"text":"Should a wider crackdown follow, that will give domestic rivals a leg-up. "},{"start":128.77399999999997,"text":"The sales hit would not only put a $4tn valuation out of reach, it could also knock Apple off its top rank in the US stock market. "}],[{"start":137.2,"text":"Listen to Lex deputy editor Elaine Moore talk to creators, companies and critics about the next era of social media in the FT’s new Tech Tonic podcast series. "}],[{"start":145.92999999999998,"text":""}]],"url":"https://creatives.ftacademy.cn/album/136011-1703817780.mp3"}